How Far Can the Two Newcomers Go?

JVDB compared players who have competed in both the V.League and SV.League. To reduce the impact of limited playing time or different roles, the comparison was restricted to attackers who recorded at least 50 attack attempts in both seasons. Setters and players with very limited opportunities in one category were excluded. The resulting estimate puts V.League attacking production at roughly 77% when converted to the SV.League level. That figure is used as one benchmark, together with blocking, serving, serve reception, opponent production and scoring balance. This is not intended as a precise forecast of final standings, but as a way to place teams from different categories on a comparable scale.

Hokkaido went 26-4 last season, winning 82 sets and losing only 21 for a set-winning rate of 79.6%. Seventeen of its 30 matches ended in 3-0 victories. Much of that core remains, while proven SV talent has been added. Yu-sheng Chang is the most obvious example after scoring 624 points in the 2025-26 SV.League season. Converting Hokkaido's returning V.League production and adding the actual SV production of incoming players gives an attacking estimate of about 17.3 points per set from attacks, blocks and service aces.

Using the same measure, last season's SV figures were Suntory 17.93, Osaka B 17.78, Hokkaido's estimate 17.3, Hiroshima TH 16.67, Nippon Steel Sakai BZ 16.60, STINGS Aichi 16.59, Tokyo GB 16.27, WD Nagoya 16.14, Toray Shizuoka 15.82, Voreas 15.67 and VC Nagano 14.66. On attacking production alone, Hokkaido's estimate falls in the upper group. Volleyball, however, is not decided by attack alone.

JVDB then added attack efficiency, opponent attack efficiency, blocks per set, serving efficiency, reception efficiency and scoring balance. The resulting 44-match estimate for Hokkaido was approximately 20 wins and 24 losses. Placed alongside the 2025-26 SV standings, that would sit around seventh-place level. It does not mean Hokkaido is being predicted to finish seventh, but it is notable that the team still lands around the middle of last season's SV field after defensive and reception factors are included.

Kagoshima finished last season 20-8, winning 69 sets and losing 39 for a 63.9% set-winning rate. Kakushi Sakoda scored 531 points and Yuma Nagatomo added 512, giving the pair 1,043 points. Both remain for the new season. The roster around them, however, has changed considerably, so JVDB used only the performances of returning players and added proven SV production from incoming players.

From players whose 2025-26 production can currently be measured in JVDB, Kagoshima comes out at about 11.8 attacking points per set. When attack, defense, blocking, serving and reception are fed into the same SV results model, the current known-data estimate is approximately 1-43 over 44 matches. Matsumoto TD went 5-39 last season. However, Kagoshima has several additions without comparable domestic-league data in JVDB, particularly four foreign players. Their actual ability is not being treated as zero; it simply cannot yet be quantified by this model.

Last season Voreas produced 15.67 attack-block-ace points per set, Toray Shizuoka 15.82 and Tokyo GB 16.27. Kagoshima's current estimate is 11.8. Reaching those levels would require roughly 3.9, 4.0 and 4.5 additional points per set respectively. How much production the new additions can supply is therefore one of the most interesting numbers to watch.

The overall model produces roughly 20-24 for Hokkaido and roughly 1-43 for Kagoshima before unquantified additions are considered. Those figures should not be interpreted in the same way. Hokkaido retains much of its successful core and has added players with established SV numbers, including a 624-point scorer. Kagoshima has undergone a larger rebuild, leaving a greater proportion of its potential outside the current model. For Hokkaido, the question is how much of the visible production will translate. For Kagoshima, it is how much new production will appear.

The numbers are an opening benchmark, not a final answer. Roles will change, combinations will develop, foreign additions may make major impacts and teams will improve through the season. That is exactly why an opening estimate is useful. How close will Hokkaido come to 20-24? How many wins can Kagoshima's currently unquantified additions create? Once the season starts, JVDB can return to the same model and compare the estimate with what actually happens on court.