When this setter is running the offense, do hitters finish more often than usual?
Does the same hitter become more efficient when the setter changes?
Watching a match, we sometimes feel a certain combination is clicking, or that a hitter simply looks more comfortable with one setter. Can that impression be seen in the numbers?
Using official SV.League match data from the 2025-26 season, we examined the setter-hitter relationship through two measures.
1) Are higher-efficiency hitters given a larger share of attacks? 2) In matches where a setter handles many of the sets, do hitters post a higher attack percentage than their season average?
For the first question, we compare each hitter’s attack share with attack percentage. A larger positive correlation means higher-efficiency hitters tend to receive more of the offense. For the second, we compare each hitter’s attack percentage in the setter’s qualifying matches with the hitter’s full-season rate.
In other words, we are looking for two ideas: a setter who trusts the hitters who are converting, and a setter whose hitters convert more when that setter is on court.
The available official data does not identify every individual set, so attack attempts are used as a proxy for offensive distribution. Multiple setters can also appear in the same match. These are match-level tendencies, not direct links between each set and each attack. With that caveat, three setters stood out.
Masaki Oya (Nippon Steel Sakai Blazers) — “Whoever gets the ball, the offense stays efficient.”
“Whoever gets the ball, the offense stays efficient.”
It may be no surprise to see Oya here. A Japan international and a two-time V.League Most Valuable Player during his Suntory years, he played for Nippon Steel Sakai Blazers in 2025-26.
The correlation between attack share and attack percentage was +0.133. Positive, but not strong enough to suggest that the offense was simply concentrated on the most efficient hitter.
The other measure is more revealing. In Oya’s qualifying matches, hitters’ attack percentage rose by 1.21 points on an attempt-weighted basis. About 91% of qualifying attempts came from hitters performing at or above their season average.
Matthew Anderson rose from 44.8% to 49.6% (+4.8pt). Kenta Takanashi went from 43.2% to 44.6%, Tommaso Rinaldi from 51.6% to 52.3%, and Ulrik Bo Dahl from 50.3% to 50.8%.
The picture is not simply one star getting every important ball. The numbers show several attackers operating at a high level. For an established elite setter, that is a convincing baseline. The more surprising names come next.
Chisato Hanaoka (Toray Arrows Shiga) — “Trust the hitters who are converting — and they convert even more.”
“Trust the hitters who are converting — and they convert even more.”
Next is Chisato Hanaoka, the 2025-26 Best Newcomer award winner and a first-time Japan national-team selection in 2026. She has only just turned 20.
Both measures were positive for Hanaoka. The correlation between attack share and attack percentage was +0.251, stronger than Oya’s +0.133. In her qualifying matches, higher-efficiency hitters tended to receive more of the offense.
At the same time, hitter attack percentage rose by 1.94 points on an attempt-weighted basis.
Lucille Gicquel: 36.5% to 39.9% (+3.4pt). Airi Furukawa: 33.9% to 36.5% (+2.6pt). Manami Okawa: 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pt). Koyuki Oritate, Minami Kessoku and Kyoko Aoyagi also improved.
It was not just one ace. Most of the main attackers moved in the same direction, and about 90% of qualifying attempts came from hitters performing above their season average.
More attacks go to hitters who are converting, and those hitters also convert at a higher rate. That is why Hanaoka can be described as: “Trust the hitters who are converting — and they convert even more.”
Kento Nakajima (Toray Arrows Shizuoka) — “It matters less who gets the ball — the hitters who get it finish.”
“It matters less who gets the ball — the hitters who get it finish.”
On the men’s side, Kento Nakajima produced an even more unusual pattern. He won the national high-school title at Higashiyama alongside Ran Takahashi, played for VC Nagano in 2025-26, and moved to Toray Arrows Shizuoka for 2026-27.
His attack-share × attack-percentage correlation was -0.286. In other words, there was no tendency for the most efficient hitters simply to receive the largest share.
Yet hitter efficiency rose by 2.67 points on an attempt-weighted basis in his qualifying matches — the largest increase of these three setters.
Yuji Kudo: 40.4% to 45.6% (+5.2pt). Yoshihiko Matsumoto: 45.2% to 50.0% (+4.8pt). Farhan Halim: 46.4% to 51.7% (+5.3pt). Koki Yamada: 51.2% to 53.4% (+2.2pt). Matthew Neaves: 46.5% to 47.5%.
Unlike Hanaoka, Nakajima does not show a positive relationship between efficiency and attack share. Even so, the hitters involved tended to finish at a higher rate.
That is why Nakajima’s numbers read differently: “It matters less who gets the ball — the hitters who get it finish.”
Same result, different paths
Masaki Oya: correlation +0.133 / hitter change +1.21pt Chisato Hanaoka: correlation +0.251 / hitter change +1.94pt Kento Nakajima: correlation -0.286 / hitter change +2.67pt
Oya keeps multiple attackers operating efficiently. Hanaoka tends to trust higher-efficiency hitters and sees their efficiency rise further. Nakajima shows no positive distribution-efficiency relationship, yet his hitters improve the most.
The same broad outcome — hitters finishing well — appears through three very different statistical patterns.
These numbers do not rank setter ability. Blocking, reception, rotation, opponents and match context all matter, and individual sets cannot be linked directly to individual attacks in this dataset. They are simply an intriguing pattern hidden in the numbers.
In 2026-27, how will Hanaoka’s offense evolve at age 20? And after Nakajima’s move to Toray Arrows Shizuoka, will his new hitters show the same pattern? We will want to run the numbers again when the season ends.